As inventory improves on dealer lots around the country, so are sales of new light vehicles in the United States.
According to Kelley Blue Book parent company Cox Automotive, new-vehicle sales in the first two quarters of 2023 are on track to beat estimates. Cox Automotive predicts in its semi-annual forecast that new-vehicle sales will reach 7.65 million units sold in the first half of 2023, increasing year-over-year sales volume by 11.6%.
The number of vehicles expected to sell in June is 1.3 million, a 200,000-unit bump over June 2022 sales figures.
“We came into 2023 concerned about affordability, supply constraints, and a fragile economy,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “But the jobs market has remained healthy, and consumers have found a way to buy new wheels.
The June seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is forecast at 15.2 million, an increase of more than 16% compared to this time last year when new-vehicle inventory made up less than half the current levels.
Along with inventory rising to meet retail demand, commercial fleet sales have also aided in the uptick of new light-vehicle sales. Cox Automotive foresees a 40% increase in fleet sales from 2022 at their current pace, as fleet vehicle sales are expected to reach 2.6 million by the end of the year; fleets purchased 1.8 million new vehicles in 2022.
Economic Pitfalls Could Slow Sales in Second Half of 2023
While demand is currently high, with sales pacing toward 15.4 million new vehicles sold by year’s end, potential downturns loom in the coming months, such as labor strikes, interest-rate hikes, and an end to the student-loan-repayment pause.
Still, Cox Automotive is optimistic about the market and has improved its full-year sales forecast to 15 million. Retail sales are expected to account for 12.4 million of those purchases.
“The resilience of vehicle buyers in the face of historic increases in interest rates has been surprising,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough.
The total number of new-vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2022 topped out at 13.9 million.
