The average price of a gallon of gas in the United States today sits at $3.29, according to AAA.
That’s 6 cents lower than a week ago, 26 cents lower than a month ago, and 37 cents lower than this time last year.
“Since the price peak for 2023, the national average has either fallen or remained flat for 60 straight days,” AAA says.
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The news may actually be better than that suggests.
“It’s important always to see the average is not the best measure,” Amos Hochstein, senior advisor to the president for energy and investment, tells Kelley Blue Book.
Gas prices can vary widely from state to state, with a few outliers pulling the average up.
“The most common price at American gas pumps today today is below $3,” Hochstein says. “That is a good news story for American families preparing to travel for Thanksgiving.”
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, thinks prices could fall even further. “The fall in gas prices, largely seasonal due to weakening gasoline demand, could extend for another week or two, leading to potentially the lowest gas prices since 2021 by Christmas,” he says.
Americans Driving More
Demand for gasoline has increased slightly as the holidays approach. Americans used 8.949 million barrels of gasoline per day the week ending Nov. 10 (the most recent week for which data are available), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That’s up from 8.742 million last year when prices were higher.
AAA expects 55.4 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday. That’s an increase of 2.3% over last year. This year, AAA says, could mark “the third-highest Thanksgiving forecast since AAA began tracking holiday travel in 2000.”
A Few Threats on the Horizon
The low price at the pump comes despite two major wars in oil-producing regions.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is scheduled to meet early next week and could decide to extend production cuts it made earlier this year.
The U.S., Hochstein says, is “not a member of OPEC and not in control of what they do” but has been in touch with those countries. But their role illustrates something important about gas price dynamics, he says.
“The price of oil is not a regular, normal free market. Large parts of the oil market are controlled by governments and states.” Prices are also “subject to events outside of anyone’s control,” he notes, like “weather events or wars and conflicts.”
But OPEC’s move may have limited impact. Toril Bosoni, head of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil markets and industry division, told Reuters today that the IEA expects “a slight surplus of supply in 2024 even if the OPEC+ nations extend their cuts.”
But the White House Is Stockpiling While it Can
The U.S., Hochstein notes, has “more self-sufficiency on oil in the U.S. because we are the largest producer,” but “a price increase anywhere in the word affects prices everywhere in the world.”
One tool the White House has at its disposal is the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve holds about 700 million barrels of oil. The White House released some onto the market to blunt a rise in oil prices last year.
It’s now refilling the reserve, Hochstein says. At the time of the release, the government sold the oil for “About $95 per barrel,” he says. “We’re now rebuying it for about $75.”
Though the White House has limited tools with which to influence pump prices, Hochstein says, “What the administration can do is work on to bring as much stability in the market as possible,” which includes maintaining the reserve and “being in constant contact with energy producers at home as well as around the world.”
