The current national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.92, according to AAA. Prices have risen 12 cents in just a week – a rate that will see most of America cross the $4 line again by Friday. Thirteen states are already there. But experts say this spike could be short-lived.
The increase came on suddenly after gas prices fell for nearly 100 days during summer.
Several factors have combined to create the rise.
Strangely, We’re All Driving More
Demand is rising, even at a time of year when it normally declines. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Americans burned 9.47 million barrels of gasoline the week ending September 30 (the most recent week for which data are available).
Related:
- What Rising Gas Prices Actually Cost You
- Gas Prices: How Hypermiling Saves You Money
- How to Get Better Fuel Economy in Your Existing Car
That’s an increase of 7% from the prior week, even at a time when schools are in session, and fewer Americans are taking long trips.
Supply Took Several Recent Hits
At the same time, the national supply of gasoline dropped. AAA explains, “pump prices on the West Coast have increased due to ongoing refinery maintenance at roughly six refineries, severely limiting the region’s supply.”
In addition, a deadly fire last month shut down an Ohio refinery. An AP report says it may not be able to resume operations until December.
Oil prices are on the rise, as the OPEC+ consortium of oil-exporting countries voted last week to cut oil production worldwide. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy, called the OPEC+ decision “the primary factor in the national price rising for the third straight week.”
Prices May Fall Soon
A few factors could help drive prices back down soon.
California regulators agreed to let stations begin selling cheaper winter-blend gasoline last Friday. The rest of the country makes that switch in September, but the Golden State usually waits until November.
The move could take a week or more to affect pump prices, as stations need to sell out of the more expensive fuel they have in stock and await shipments of winter formula.
The colder months also typically cause a drop in demand as Americans stay home in inclement weather. AAA also notes that some economists are “concerned that a recession could lead to lower crude demand and prices.”
