Americans bought about 2.5 million certified pre-owned (CPO) cars in 2024 – down 2% from 2023 numbers.
Some of the brands best-known for trusted CPO cars saw their certified sales slip more heavily during the year, according to Kelley Blue Book parent company Cox Automotive. Toyota, for instance, sold 13% fewer CPO models in 2024 than in 2023. Honda sold 11% fewer.
Related: Buying Used vs. Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles
The sales drop did not happen because Americans were no longer interested in CPO cars. Dealers simply had fewer cars to certify in 2024. The average non-luxury brand saw its CPO inventory fall 11% during the year.
Used Car Supply Is Tight, So CPO Supply Is Tight
The COVID-19 pandemic played havoc with the supply of new cars, but that problem is largely over. Its effects on the used car market, however, will linger for years.
Automakers built about 8.1 fewer new cars at the height of the pandemic than they otherwise would have. Those cars will never reach the used market, restricting the supply of used cars for years.
It also changed Americans’ leasing behavior.
A car lease typically gives the lessee the right to buy the car at the end of the contract at a price set during lease negotiation. Used car prices soared at the height of the pandemic, leaving many lessees in a strange position – they could buy their car for a price set before price increases began and couldn’t easily find another affordable car.
Related: Buying a Certified Pre-Owned Car – What You Should Know
As a result, many bought their leased cars.
Dealers had come to depend on a steady supply of newly off-lease cars returning to the dealership. Those cars are typically three years old or newer, as longer leases are rare. They’re often lightly used, as leases include mileage restrictions.
That steady feed of off-lease cars feeds the CPO market.
With the feed restricted, dealers found themselves with fewer lightly used, recent-model used cars to certify.
Outlook Slightly Better for 2025
That problem will take years to self-correct. But CPO shoppers will likely find a better supply of available cars in 2025 than last year.
Related: Certified Used Car Prices
Cox Automotive is forecasting retail used vehicle sales in 2025 to reach 20.1 million, an increase of approximately 1.2% compared to 2024. The CPO market will see a similar slow recovery.
